As usual, most commentators linked Kvashnin's removal to problems within the military. There is no question that the Kremlin had become concerned with the situation in the military -- heads would not have rolled otherwise -- but the Kremlin was concerned with the state of the military in a purely bureaucratic, not a professional sense.

No one was punished or promoted on the basis of his job performance. The issue is not the course of military operations in Chechnya or the progress of the much-ballyhooed military reform. The only real problem that had to be solved was that, despite Kvashnin's loyalty to Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, President Vladimir Putin's team did not have full control of the entire military, security and law enforcement complex.

During the past four years, the Kremlin has made very clear to all involved that mere loyalty is not enough. In the final analysis, the Putin team trusts no one but their own. The "civilian" Ivanov, who like Putin served in the foreign intelligence arm of the KGB, has also had to contend with the solidarity of the military top brass. Kvashnin wasn't exactly a true-blue general himself, of course, having graduated from a nonmilitary university and "snuck into" the military though the back door, as many regulars believed. But compared to the former chekist Ivanov, Kvashnin looked like the genuine article.

Now command of the military has been unified. Next up -- army intelligence, which until recently existed in a world of its own. The mutual hostility between military and civilian intelligence is well-known, and first emerged in the Soviet era. Now commercial rivalries have been added to the mix. Serving ideology or the interests of the state is a thing of the past. Only dim memories remain of corporate ethics in the security services, which are increasingly dominated by a free-market spirit. Agents trained in surveillance now offer their services to private clients. Those trained in munitions make their money blowing things up. The closed system in these agencies makes it very easy for agents to launder money from their questionable moonlighting work through reliable people and mysterious companies both here and abroad.

As one military expert put it recently, army intelligence is gradually becoming a disorganized, badly managed confederation of various gangs and companies. The arrival of the Kremlin's team will mean a renewed struggle for spheres of influence. We have a pretty good idea how this sort of thing happens in the mafia, but how will it play out in the security services and the many related organizations? We won't see all-out battles and the use of heavy artillery, of course. And increasingly dubious reports will be filed up the chain of command as before. But control will be lost entirely.

In this situation it is pointless to talk about a war on terrorism. All sorts of nasty incidents will occur with increasing frequency, providing journalists with endless opportunities to divine when real extremists are involved and when we are dealing with a provocation. And barring other unexpected problems, those in power will regain control of the situation sooner or later, deal with the troublemakers and redirect the revenue streams. But for that time is needed, something the friends of the Kremlin might not have.

The Putin team planned to launch a revolution in its second term, to solve all of its problems and meet all of its obligations in one fell swoop. They'll strip pensioners of their benefits, herd university students into the Army and curtail free education and healthcare. They'll try to undermine the power of the governors by redrawing administrative boundaries and amalgamating various regions. The liberal intelligentsia will be kept off the airwaves and the Communists will be driven out of politics. A new and improved oligarchy will be hastily created to replace the old disloyal one.

Revolutionary methods work well during a revolution, but you cannot destabilize a country in which revolutionary chaos already reigns.

The current regime has no plans to unleash revolution, or even counter-revolution, but it can certainly create chaos.

*director of the Institute of Globalization Studies.

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